中美舌戰(zhàn)哥本哈根氣候峰會(huì)

中國(guó)外交部副部長(zhǎng)何亞非在2009年聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候峰會(huì)期間舉行新聞發(fā)布會(huì)。

本周晚些時(shí)候，包括美國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧巴馬在內(nèi)的全球政要將飛赴丹麥?zhǔn)锥几绫竟鱿?lián)合國(guó)氣候峰會(huì)，宣告人類開(kāi)啟全球環(huán)境合作的新時(shí)代。實(shí)際上，此次峰會(huì)將成為中美經(jīng)濟(jì)較量的一次大攤牌。

The political script for a big climate-change conference in this Danish city has U.S. President Barack Obama and other world leaders flying in later this week to christen a new era of global environmental cooperation. In reality, the summit is shaping up as a pivotal economic showdown between the U.S. and China.

國(guó)際能源署(IEA)估計(jì)，在未來(lái)20年中，幾乎所有溫室氣體的排放增長(zhǎng)都將來(lái)自發(fā)展中國(guó)家，其中一半來(lái)自中國(guó)。眼下在哥本哈根爭(zhēng)論的焦點(diǎn)就是經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力大增的中國(guó)是否應(yīng)該從美國(guó)和歐洲每年獲得數(shù)十億美元的援助來(lái)幫助它轉(zhuǎn)型為更清潔的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式。

The International Energy Agency projects that nearly all the growth in global greenhouse-gas emissions over the next two decades will come from developing countries -- and that fully half of that total will come from China alone. A central point of contention here is whether China, amid all its newfound economic might, still deserves billions of dollars in annual aid from the U.S. and Europe to help it shift to a cleaner pattern of growth.

中國(guó)人認(rèn)為的答案是“是的”。中國(guó)外交部副部長(zhǎng)何亞非上周五說(shuō)，富裕國(guó)家在消耗化石燃料的基礎(chǔ)上積累了財(cái)富，打一個(gè)比方，就像一屋子人在吃飯，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家已經(jīng)吃很久了，發(fā)展中國(guó)家剛坐下來(lái)，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家就說(shuō)，應(yīng)該由你們來(lái)埋單。

China says the answer is yes. He Yafei, China's vice foreign minister, said on Friday that rich nations, which built their prosperity on fossil fuels, are like people who go out for a fancy dinner and then, when a poor guest arrives late for dessert, demand that he pay the same bill for his meal as everyone else.

何亞非說(shuō)，這不公平，誰(shuí)造成了這一問(wèn)題誰(shuí)就該負(fù)責(zé)。不過(guò)，他說(shuō)歐盟大體遵守了自己的減排承諾，他幾次點(diǎn)名批評(píng)美國(guó)沒(méi)有盡到應(yīng)盡的義務(wù)。

'It's not fair,' Mr. He said. 'Whoever created this problem, they're responsible,' he said. Although he said the European Union had largely lived up to its emission-reduction promises, he singled out the U.S. several times by name as a country that hadn't done its share.

簡(jiǎn)而言之，何亞非認(rèn)為情況較上世紀(jì)90年代末、即當(dāng)前用以應(yīng)對(duì)全球變暖的京都議定書(shū)(Kyoto Protocol)商討之時(shí)并沒(méi)有發(fā)生太多變化。京都議定書(shū)要求工業(yè)化國(guó)家削減自身排放，并資助發(fā)展中國(guó)家推廣節(jié)能汽車及太陽(yáng)能板等清潔能源技術(shù)。

In short, Mr. He is arguing that not much has changed since the late 1990s, when the basis for the current international framework designed to combat global warming -- a treaty called the Kyoto Protocol -- was negotiated. Kyoto called on industrialized countries to cut their own emissions and help developing countries with subsidies to promote cleaner technologies like energy-efficient cars and solar panels.

不過(guò)美國(guó)方面認(rèn)為中國(guó)已經(jīng)不再有資格獲得優(yōu)待了。美國(guó)首席談判代表斯特恩(Todd Stern)在上周三的一個(gè)新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō)，雖然更貧困的發(fā)展中國(guó)家仍需要西方的幫助來(lái)獲得清潔能源技術(shù)，但中國(guó)與它們不一樣。他說(shuō)，我沒(méi)有想過(guò)公共資金、特別是來(lái)自美國(guó)的資金將流向中國(guó)，不能通過(guò)給發(fā)展中大國(guó)通行證的方式解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題。

But the U.S. argues China no longer deserves special treatment. Though poorer developing countries still need Western help to nurture clean-energy technologies, China is different, Todd Stern, the chief U.S. climate negotiator, told a news conference here last Wednesday. 'I don't envision public funds -- certainly not from the United States -- going to China,' he said. 'There is no way to solve this problem by giving the major developing countries a pass.'

就環(huán)境問(wèn)題而言，溫室氣體排放量占全球排放總量約40%的中美兩國(guó)是此次聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候峰會(huì)上兩股最重要的力量。截至目前，此次哥本哈根會(huì)議主要凸現(xiàn)出了中美在氣候政策上的深刻分歧。兩國(guó)對(duì)政策細(xì)節(jié)的爭(zhēng)論是未來(lái)數(shù)十年兩國(guó)廣泛經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力較量的一個(gè)縮影。眼見(jiàn)中國(guó)將提高能源使用效率，而不是限制碳燃料使用增長(zhǎng)，許多美國(guó)商界領(lǐng)袖擔(dān)心大幅削減化石燃料使用將提高生產(chǎn)成本并使得他們?cè)诤椭袊?guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中處于不利地位。

Environmentally speaking, the U.S. and China, which together account for some 40% of global greenhouse-gas emissions, are the nations that matter most in the U.N. climate debate. So far, the Copenhagen summit has served mainly to illuminate their profound disagreements over climate policy. The arguments over the details of climate policy reflect the broader contest between the U.S. and China for economic power in the decades ahead. Many business leaders in the U.S. worry that efforts to dramatically cut fossil-fuel consumption could raise their production costs and put them at a disadvantage to rivals in a China that is becoming more efficient, but not limiting its carbon-fueled growth.

上個(gè)月，中美在先后兩天時(shí)間里宣布了自己的減排目標(biāo)。美國(guó)宣布在2020年之前將把碳排放較2005年的水平減少17%，與有待美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)的氣候立法基本相符。而中國(guó)提出在2020年前將碳強(qiáng)度（即每單位國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值能耗）較2005年削減40%至45%。

On two consecutive days last month, both the U.S. and China announced specific emission-reduction targets. The U.S. said it would reduce emissions 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, a number broadly in line with climate-change legislation pending on Capitol Hill. China said it would cut its 'carbon intensity' -- the amount of greenhouse-gas emissions produced per unit of economic output -- 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2020.

不過(guò)，研究顯示，即便中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)了這一目標(biāo)，它在2020年時(shí)的碳排放量仍將比2005年時(shí)激增逾75%。外交關(guān)系協(xié)會(huì)(Council on Foreign Relations)專攻能源及氣候變化問(wèn)題的高級(jí)研究員列維(Michael Levi)說(shuō)，國(guó)際能源署、美國(guó)能源部以及中國(guó)政府部門的研究都表明，早在中國(guó)近期發(fā)表減排聲明之前，中國(guó)削減約45%碳強(qiáng)度的目標(biāo)就是很有希望實(shí)現(xiàn)的。

But even if China achieved that carbon-intensity cut, the country's total emissions still would surge more than 75% above the 2005 level by 2020, studies project. Michael Levi, a senior fellow specializing in energy and climate change at the Council on Foreign Relations, says studies by the IEA, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Chinese government all suggest that China was on track to achieve a roughly 45% reduction in carbon intensity even before its recent announcement.

歐盟和奧巴馬提議歐盟和美國(guó)應(yīng)該在2050年之前將碳排放總量削減80%。但是何亞非說(shuō)，許下這樣的遠(yuǎn)期諾言是容易的，他懷疑發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家承諾的誠(chéng)意。

The European Union and Mr. Obama have proposed that the EU and the U.S. will aim to slash their total emissions on the order of 80% by 2050. But Mr. He said it is easy to make such long-term promises. 'I doubt the sincerity of developed countries in their commitment,' he said.

何亞非說(shuō)中國(guó)的環(huán)境承諾雖然可能不那么堂皇，但是更為實(shí)際。他說(shuō)，我很高興與任何人進(jìn)行辯論，看看中國(guó)的承諾是比其他國(guó)家多還是少；畢竟事實(shí)勝于雄辯。

Mr. He said China's environmental pledge, while perhaps less grandiose, is more real. 'I would happily go to debate with any person to see whether what China has committed is less or more than another country,' he said. 'Facts speak louder than words.'