Lex專(zhuān)欄：特朗普豪賭只會(huì)損害美臺(tái)企業(yè)利益

Donald Trump reckons himself a master of the high-stakes gamble. Over the weekend, the US president-elect questioned whether his administration would respect the “One China” policy, by which the US acknowledges just one legitimate Chinese government. This prompted a robust response from Beijing. Any spat risks hurting Taiwan businesses — and US interests as badly.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)自認(rèn)為是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)賭博方面的高手。上周末，這位美國(guó)當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)質(zhì)疑，他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國(guó)政府是否還要繼續(xù)遵守“一個(gè)中國(guó)”政策，即美國(guó)只承認(rèn)一個(gè)合法的中國(guó)政府。這激起了北京方面的強(qiáng)硬回應(yīng)。中美間的任何齟齬都可能?chē)?yán)重傷害臺(tái)灣企業(yè)以及美國(guó)的利益。

Until Mr Trump’s victory in November, China’s government was accepted as the one that rules on the mainland. Earlier this month the president-elect broke with protocol by accepting a phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan. On that occasion, China reacted with restraint, protesting directly to Washington. Like Mr Trump’s posturing, Beijing’s reaction has escalated. On Monday, China hit back, its foreign ministry denouncing Trump’s comments.

直至特朗普今年11月勝選，美方一直承認(rèn)的是統(tǒng)治中國(guó)大陸的中國(guó)政府。本月早些時(shí)候，特朗普打破慣例，接聽(tīng)了臺(tái)灣總統(tǒng)蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)打來(lái)的電話(huà)。那時(shí)，中方作出了克制的回應(yīng)，直接向華盛頓表示抗議。與特朗普的再次表態(tài)一樣，北京這一次的反應(yīng)也已經(jīng)升級(jí)。周一，中方進(jìn)行了回?fù)?，中?guó)外交部譴責(zé)了特朗普的言論。

US dependence on Taiwanese manufacturing runs deep. Over the years, as technology companies such as Intel and Dell have invested less in production, they have outsourced to Taiwanese manufacturers. Nor does their dependence stop at Taiwan’s shores. As relations between China and its “renegade province” have thawed, Taiwanese companies’ mainland-based facilities have grown. As a result Apple, dependent on the semiconductor maker TSMC and manufacturer Foxconn (listed in Taiwan as Hon Hai), relies on mainland China too. At end of 2015 three quarters of Foxconn’s fixed assets were across the straits.

美國(guó)對(duì)臺(tái)灣制造業(yè)的依賴(lài)程度很深。多年來(lái)，由于英特爾(Intel)、戴爾(Dell)等科技公司在生產(chǎn)方面的投資減少，它們已將生產(chǎn)外包給臺(tái)灣制造商。然而，美國(guó)企業(yè)依賴(lài)的不止是臺(tái)灣。由于中國(guó)大陸與其“叛離省份”的關(guān)系已經(jīng)解凍，臺(tái)灣企業(yè)在中國(guó)大陸設(shè)立的工廠(chǎng)不斷增多。結(jié)果是，依賴(lài)半導(dǎo)體制造商臺(tái)積電(TSMC)和代工制造商富士康(Foxconn，在臺(tái)灣上市名稱(chēng)為鴻海(Hon Hai))的蘋(píng)果公司(Apple)也要依靠中國(guó)大陸。截至2015年底，富士康四分之三的固定資產(chǎn)都位于中國(guó)大陸。

Disrupting these operations would not be hard for China. Failing that, its government is a past master at mobilising public opinion against foreign companies, for misdeeds real or perceived. It is an unwise man who provokes such mobilisation.

干擾這些企業(yè)對(duì)于中國(guó)大陸并不難。即使不走這條路，煽動(dòng)輿論反對(duì)外資企業(yè)——無(wú)論這些企業(yè)是真的行為不端，還是被這么認(rèn)為——也是中國(guó)大陸政府所擅長(zhǎng)的。只有不明智的人才會(huì)刺激這種煽動(dòng)行為。

Perhaps Mr Trump believes Taiwan is expendable in his get-tough stance on China. Alternatively, he may think disrupting companies such as Foxconn will bring manufacturing home. In this game of chicken between China and Mr Trump, it is US companies that risk being run over.

或許特朗普認(rèn)為在他對(duì)中國(guó)的強(qiáng)硬立場(chǎng)中，臺(tái)灣是可以犧牲的。又或者，他可能認(rèn)為干擾富士康等企業(yè)就可以將制造業(yè)帶回美國(guó)。在中國(guó)與特朗普之間這場(chǎng)懦夫博弈中，被坑的可能是美國(guó)企業(yè)。