莫迪：一場(chǎng)豪賭

Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, rode to power in 2014 with promises to revive economic growth, create jobs for unemployed youth, and find and repatriate money that rich Indians had hidden abroad. Yet change had been incremental.

2014年，印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)帶著對(duì)恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、為失業(yè)青年創(chuàng)造就業(yè)、以及找到并追回印度富人藏在海外的資金的承諾上臺(tái)。不過(guò)，改變一直是漸進(jìn)發(fā)生的。

But on November 8, Mr Modi set off a “big bang” that caught most Indians totally off-guard. In a televised speech, he declared an immediate ban on the use of Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes — 86 per cent of India’s circulating cash supply — in a highly cash-driven economy and ordered that they be returned to banks by the end of the year.

但在11月8日，莫迪引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)“大爆炸”，讓大多數(shù)印度人完全措手不及。在電視講話中，他宣布立即禁止在高度現(xiàn)金驅(qū)動(dòng)的印度經(jīng)濟(jì)中使用面值為500和1000盧比的紙幣——占印度流通中現(xiàn)金供應(yīng)量的86%——并且下令在今年年底前把這些紙幣存入銀行。

India’s stunned public was told the radical measure would help New Delhi unearth or destroy the illicit wealth that corrupt officials, powerful politicians and tax-dodging businessmen are popularly believed to stash in the form of cash. Indians are now grappling with an unprecedented and highly disruptive experiment, whose outcome will undoubtedly be studied by economists for years to come.

不知所措的印度民眾被告知，這項(xiàng)激進(jìn)措施將有助于政府發(fā)現(xiàn)或毀掉那些腐化官員、有權(quán)政客、以及逃稅商人被普遍認(rèn)為以現(xiàn)金形式藏匿的非法財(cái)富。印度人目前正在努力應(yīng)對(duì)這場(chǎng)史無(wú)前例、極具顛覆性的實(shí)驗(yàn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家無(wú)疑將在未來(lái)多年研究其結(jié)果。

It is a big political gamble for Mr Modi, who apparently decided on the sweeping step after limited consultations and with minimal preparation. He is betting the political pay-off for demonstrating tough resolve on black money — and, incidentally, wiping out the cash reserves of his political rivals — will outweigh the economic costs of the acute cash scarcity. Several large state elections early next year will indicate whether he is right.

對(duì)莫迪來(lái)說(shuō)，這是一場(chǎng)政治大賭博，他顯然是在有限的磋商和幾乎毫無(wú)準(zhǔn)備的情況下決定了這項(xiàng)影響極為廣泛的措施。他在賭，展現(xiàn)自己對(duì)打擊黑錢(qián)——并順帶清洗掉政治對(duì)手的現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備——的堅(jiān)定決心所帶來(lái)的政治收益，將超過(guò)嚴(yán)重現(xiàn)金短缺所帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本。明年年初舉行的多個(gè)大邦選舉將表明他是否押對(duì)了。

The writer is the FT’s South Asia Bureau Chief

本文作者為英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》南亞分社社長(zhǎng)