The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
“Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit. To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems.”
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
五問:
(1)同學(xué)們請(qǐng)注意:這段話是出自 Humana 大學(xué)校長(zhǎng)的備忘錄。因此,在材料中看到 Omni 大學(xué)時(shí),應(yīng)該知道它的作用是對(duì)比比較。 “Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space”和“In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit”是事實(shí),“To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni”是結(jié)論,值得反駁嗎?
(2)在沒有給出具體人數(shù)的情況下,50%的增長(zhǎng)率有意義嗎?
(3)在沒有確定兩個(gè)大學(xué)的特點(diǎn)是否一致的情況下,我們能否簡(jiǎn)單地認(rèn)為兩者應(yīng)該采取一致的策略?
(4)鄰近的 Omni大學(xué)所提供的線上課程,和Humana大學(xué)開設(shè)的課程效果一定會(huì)一樣嗎?對(duì)學(xué)生的吸引程度一樣嗎?
(5)Omni大學(xué)減少了在宿舍和教室的空間上花費(fèi)的成本,真的是因?yàn)槠湓诰€課程嗎?還是有別的可能性?你能想出其他一兩種可能性嗎?例如:走讀的學(xué)生越來(lái)越多,不在學(xué)校寢室住,也可能在校外租房住,或者學(xué)校開設(shè)的課程少了。
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